Are rapid declines of common species becoming more frequent?

Theme: Biodiversity and conservation science

Description: 

Species with indicators such as small populations, small existing range, or population decline are more likely to become extinct, so they are placed in a threatened category by the IUCN Red List and national lists- NT, VU, EN, CR, or EX (rather than the non-threatened category LC). However, there are many examples of common species (LC) suddenly declining to extinction or near-extinction without an intervening period passing through progressively higher categories of risk. This could indicate rapid decline or poor knowledge- the species accounts clarify which. This project would use IUCN Red List data to test if the incidence of species (e.g. mammals and / or birds) jumping from least concern to critically endangered or extinct is increasing over time, by analysing past Red List categories and the years when species moved from LC to CR or EX and any intervening categories, to test if there is a bias towards later years in species jumping from non-threatened to nearly extinct or extinct, so the speed of individual species declines is accelerating. The project will also investigate if the cause of decline is associated with this variation in speed of decline.

Contact: Assoc Prof Diana Fisher